Aurora Borealis Forecast and Northern Lights Forecast at Soft Serve News
Northern Lights




Aurora Borealis Forecast for Sunday, May 19, 2013



Latest Forecast = in 45 minutes, the Aurora will be Quiet




When and Where are the Northern Lights Tonight?


Here's Everything You Need to know. . .

By JIM THOMAS -- Soft Serve News

Auroras are difficult to predict with precision. They have stops and starts (known as sub-storms). If you are out there, you need to be patient and lucky. Here are some tools that will increase your chances. You should check them at the last minute.


REAL TIME AURORA BOREALIS PREDICTION:

Here is the prediction of storm intensity for the next few minutes (the higher the Kp number, the larger the Aurora):

The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program Estimates that . . .

in 3 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.67 -- Quiet
in 18 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.67 -- Quiet
in 30 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 2 -- Quiet
in 45 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 2 -- Quiet

(Refresh the page to update the above, it is updated on the server every 2 minutes)
(You can also get free Aurora Alerts, when a storm goes above 4 Kp, via Facebook or Twitter)

Now, find the Kp number line on one of the following maps that matches the Kp number predicted above. If you are located at or above the estimated Kp line, you are in the right spot. You might even be in luck if you are located within next lower line, but you will have to look lower on the horizon (about 20 degrees above the northern horizon). Be aware though, ground based light pollution and weather will have a greater impact at these more marginal locations.

North America


Europe & Asia




If you're looking at this during the day, check the 'rough prediction' for tonight

University of Alaska - Geophysical Institute

Check the Auroral forecast. Here's the current forecast. (When you get to the site, click on the North American icon on the upper left for the US)


Here's the most recent image of the aurora oval, but note this shows the past, not the future (image is 1 hour and 44 minutes old).

Space Environment Center

The closer you are to the oval the better. Strong Auroras enlarge the circle and push it southward. The red arrow points towards the sun (high noon).
. . . and here's another prediction for the next 30 minutes or so (uses the same Kp data, but typically not updated as quickly as above)

University of Alaska - Geophysical Institute

Check the Short Term (30 minutes or so) Auroral Forecast. (When you get to the site, click on the North American icon on the upper left for the US)

(Story continues below)



EARTH LIGHT & MOONLIGHT POLLUTION:

Dark. Dark. Dark. It is not just about low light. You want late nightime DARK. It is important to remember the widest part of the Aurora is when the sun is on the opposite side of the earth. But you also want few competing light sources so get away from the city lights and let your eyes adjust to the darkness. The further away from those earth based light sources the better for seeing the Northern Lights. Full moons hurt a bit because they increase ambient light and darkness is best for viewing. The darker the moon, the better. Here's how the moon looks right now:


How the moon looks right now


YOUR LOCAL WEATHER:

Auroras happen in the upper atmosphere, so if there is cloud cover, you are out of luck. Cold and clear are best for viewing the Aurora:

US Satellite Animation Map

Western Europe Satellite Animation Map
Other Locations



LOCATION:

While they have seen Auroral sub-storms as far down as Cuba, realistically north is where you need to be. The stronger the Aurora the more south one can see it. Check the Kp maps (above) and the size of the aurora oval (also above).


MOTIVATION:

Finally, here is a nice Aurora video I found on YouTube if you need extra motivation . . .



Drive safe -- and good luck!







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