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Aurora Borealis Forecast for Saturday, September 04, 2010

Latest Forecast = in 63 minutes, the Aurora will be Quiet

Want To See The Northern Lights Tonight?

Here's Everything You Need to know. . .

By J. THOMAS -- Soft Serve News

Auroras are difficult to predict with precision. They have stops and starts (known as sub-storms). If you are out there, you need to be patient and lucky. Here are some tools that will increase your chances. You should check them at the last minute.

REAL TIME SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:

Here is the prediction of storm intensity for the next few minutes (the higher the Kp number, the larger the Aurora):

The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program Estimates that . . .

in 2 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet
in 18 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet
in 33 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet
in 48 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet
in 63 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1.33 -- Quiet

(Refresh the page to update the above, it is updated on the server every 2 minutes)
(You can also get Aurora alerts texted to your phone via Twitter)

Now, find the Kp number line on one of the following maps that matches the Kp number predicted above. If you are located at or above the estimated Kp line, you are in the right spot. You might even be in luck if you are located within next lower line, but you will have to look lower on the horizon (about 20 degrees above the northern horizon). Be aware though, ground based light pollution and weather will have a greater impact at these more marginal locations.

North America

Europe

If you're looking at this during the day, check the 'rough prediction' for tonight

University of Alaska - Geophysical Institute

Check the Auroral forecast. Here's the current forecast. (When you get to the site, click on the North American icon on the upper left for the US)

Here's the most recent image of the aurora oval, but unfortunately this shows the past, not the future (image is 1 hour and 39 minutes old).

The closer you are to the oval the better. Strong storms enlarge the circle and push it southward. The red arrow points towards the sun (high noon).

. . . and here's another prediction for the next 30 minutes or so (uses the same Kp data, but typically not updated as quickly as above)

Check the Short Term (30 minutes or so) Auroral Forecast. (When you get to the site, click on the North American icon on the upper left for the US)

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YOUR LOCAL WEATHER:

Auroras happen in the upper atmosphere, so if there is cloud cover, you are out of luck. Cold and clear are best for viewing the Aurora:

US Satellite Animation Map

Western Europe Satellite Animation Map

Other Locations

EARTH LIGHT & MOONLIGHT POLLUTION:

Dark. Dark. Dark. Get away from the city lights and let your eyes adjust to the darkness. The further away from those earth based light sources the better. Full moons hurt because they increase ambient light and darkness is best for viewing. The darker the moon, the better. Here's how the moon looks right now:

LOCATION:

While they have seen Aurora sub-storms as far down as Cuba, realistically north is where you need to be. The stronger the storm the more south one can see it. Check the Kp maps (above) and the size of the aurora oval (also above).

MOTIVATION:

Finally, here is a nice Aurora video I found on YouTube if you need extra motivation . . .

Drive safe -- and good luck!